Exit polls on Sunday unitedly show a return of the Modi government to the office with the NDA securing a majority, however, it is interesting to see that whether or not BJP would get the halfway mark on its own in the Lok Sabha.
The Exit Polls is forecast between 277 and 352 seats for the NDA along with the BJP getting 227 to 291 seats. Both of them has shown that the saffron party may actually cross its 2014 tally of 282. If these seats are proved correct, This would be the first time since the Congress in 1980 and 1984 of a single party winning a majority in two successive Lok Sabha polls.
The predicted tally for the Congress is ranged between 38 to 87 seats. The 38-seat estimation would mean the party slipping even further from its all-time low of 44 in 2014, however 87 seats would mean it nearly doubles its tally which is sufficient to formally get the title of Leader of the Opposition, And it would be small consolation for a party which hope to unseat Narendra Modi as Prime Minister and lead a coalition government in New Delhi.
While BJP and NDA are likely to win the exact number of seats in specific states varied from one poll to the other, the saffron alliance picking up all but a handful of seats in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Bihar, nearly similar to the 2014 outcome in these states.
It was also estimated that to make major inroads in Odisha and West Bengal – with one poll even proposed that it could win more seats than Naveen Patnaik’s BJD and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress respectively in these two states, which have traditionally yielded low returns for the BJP.
If exit poll result believed in Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Punjab. In UP, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance was estimated to win anywhere between 13 and 45 of the state’s 80 seats in the different polls. In Tamil Nadu, the DMK-led UPA was projected to win a majority of the seats by most pollsters, but here, NDA may make a bigger dent than was mostly expected.
In Punjab, Congress was estimated to raise its tally at the expense not only of the Akalis and BJP but also AAP, which had won four seats last time but now it could end up with one at best, according to pollsters.
Apart from the arithmetic that seems to have worked at least to some extent in UP, talking about the Karnataka, the other state in which BJP’s main rivals had tied up to defeat it, the predictions are that Congress and JD(S) may actually do worse than in 2014, when they won 11 of the 28 seats. Now, if the polls prove exact, they could win at best 9 seats and possibly as few as 4.
Talking about West Bengal, the unanimous verdict of the exit polls was that it would fail to win any seats there, a state it had dominated for over three decades. The silver lining was that one poll projected it winning more seats than Congress-led UDF in Kerala.
Exit polls have a mixed results data in India with some strikingly exact predictions and some going spectacularly wrong. But with all the polls point to the same direction and varying few even in terms of the extent of the trend. Now it’s a wait that BJP would be upbeat about its expectation on Thursday or not, when the official results are to be announced.